Natural Disasters When Will They Reach Me?

Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me?The expected time of impact, also known as the mean first passage time (MFPT) to reach failure, is a critical metric in the management of natural disasters. The complexity of the dynamics governing natural disasters lead to stochastic behaviour. This book shows that state transitions of many such systems translate into random walks on their respective state spaces, biased and shaped by environmental inhomogeneity. Thus the probabilistic treatment of those random walks gives valuable insights of expected behaviour. A comprehensive case study of predicting cyclone induced flood is followed by a discussion of generic methods that predict MFPT addressing directional bias. This is followed by discussing MFPT prediction methods in systems showing network inhomogeneity. All presented methods are illustrated using real datasets of natural disasters. The book ends with a short discussion of possible future research areas introducing the problem of predicting MFPT for bush-fire propagation.Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me? is written by Isuri Wijesundera; Malka N. Halgamuge; Thrishantha Nanayakkara; Thas Nirmalathas and published by Springer. ISBNs for Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me? are 9789811011139, 9811011133 and the print ISBNs are 9789811011115, 9811011117.